Problem Definition
In Week 15 Change Order for Pearl team is needed based on the following causes:
- Postpone the remaining Paper task, until we do the Final Exam.
- 1 team member resigned
To accommodate this change re-baseline effort required by using week 14 as its basis.
Identify the Feasible Alternative
With basis assumptions to be included:
- End date of project remain on 7th July 2018.
- Team agree there will be no reduction of BAC for each active member, Total hours budget for each member remain 250 hrs
- Due to another 1 member resigned (total 4 members resigned), total BAC for overall project changed into 103K (from 250 hrs x 3 active member + 253.6 hrs spent from resigned team member)
In the event that the project as being built is different than what was originally planned, with “rule of thumb” is +/-10 variance, then we can recommend to the clients and key stakeholders that we RE-BASELINE the schedule.
At this point of time this project %schedule plan is 53.5% with %complete 44.8%, variance 8.7%.
2 methods can be used to re-baseline:
- Leave the ACWP and BCWP to date UNCHANGED and only adjust the BCWS Early and BCWS Late Date Curves to reflect the changes. (+/-)
- Zero Based Budgeting Method- In this method, we “close out” all the work completed to date and effectively create a new project baseline consisting of the work already done and the work remaining, and use the only known fact- ACWP to date as the starting point for the new project.
Figure-1. Source: Giammalvo, Paul D (2015) Course Materials Contributed Under Creative Commons License BY v 4.0
Development of the Outcome for Alternative
Figure-2. The Progress Curve as of Week-14
Re-baseline Option 1 results:
Figure-3. Option 1 results
Re-baseline Option 2 results (ACWP as starting point):
Figure-4. Option 2 results
Selection Criteria
Comparison should be done to see which method is more realistic as a new basis including from the cost wise.
Analysis and Comparison of the Alternative
Table-1. Pro and Contra between 2 re-baseline options
Selection of the Preferred Alternative
Based on comparison result, Option 2 offered better starting point where CPI & SPI is 1.0 and it considering current progress ability to catching up.
Performance Monitoring and the Post Evaluation Result
Re-baseline usually followed by compressed activity, or adjustment of out of sequence schedule. Therefore specific strategy need to be in place and committed to make new plan successful.
References:
- W10_IN_Rebaseline Project Progress Measurement, retrieved from: https://wordpress.com/post/pearlaace2017.wordpress.com/511
- Individual Re-Baseline Part 3, retrieved from:https://garudaaace2015.wordpress.com/2015/06/24/w13_rd_-individual-re-baseline-part-3/
- Project Performance Forecasting, GPCCAR 9.5, retrieved from: http://www.planningplanet.com/guild/gpccar/project-performance-forecasting
- EIA Standard. (1998), ANSI/EIA-748-1998 Earned Value Management Systems, retrieved from:https://www.emcbc.doe.gov/pmo/supporting_files/ansi-eia_748_may98.pdf
- Humphreys, G. C. (2002). Learning Curve. Project Management Using Earned Value (3rd ed.). Chapter 34. CA: Humphreys & Associates, Inc.
- Permana, A. (2013). W17_APE_My Re-Baseline Schedule. Retrieved from:http://simatupangaace2014.wordpress.com/2013/11/19/w17_ape_my-re-baseline-schedule/
EXCELLENT analysis, Pak Fadlis!!! Very well done. The only part you really didn’t explain very well was that a “root cause analysis” of why the project was over-budget should be done and those “lessons learned” used to predict the future costs.
Other than that, you did a good job on this and I hope your remaining team can finish up within +/- 5%.
BR,
Dr. PDG, back home in Jakarta
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